Handicap Bandits?

There's been a lot of talk on Yachts and Yachting's Discussion Forums lately about how some classes have "obviously unfair" handicaps. Top of the list are often Merlins, Phantoms and Fireballs. Here I've combined the results for the 2002 through to 2007 Bloody Marys. I've excluded all DNFs as being likely to distort the results. Of course this brings in another distortion, in that Classes that did well in the very windy 2005 Bloody Mary, when only 36 finished, would equally distort the results. Predictably the Fireball did well that year, with three boats in the top 15, but suprisingly the 420 didn't. Unsuprisingly the Thames Rater didn't finish that year - I doubt they even bothered to rig the boat!

I've shown the results in two tables, one with 2005 included, and one with it excluded. You'll see that it makes quite a difference in the case of several classes. There isn't really enough data here to be very statistically significant. There may be 100 entries listed, but its only 6 races and there are so many classes with just a handful of boats. By contrast the RYA's calculations are based on returns that include thousands of races every year.

Mean Mean exc 2005
Thames A Rater 3 Thames A Rater 3
Topaz Magno 9 Topaz Magno 9
Rocket 15 Rocket 15
International Canoe 22 2.4m 20
Firefly 23 International Canoe 22
National 12 24 Firefly 23
2.4m 25 National 12 24
Byte Cii 26 Byte Cii 26
Gp14 27 Gp14 26
Solo 28 Solo 28
Europe 29 Europe 29
Fireball 31 International 14 31
International 14 31 National 18 32
National 18 32 Fireball 34
29er 37 29er 37
Heatwave 37 Heatwave 37
49er 38 49er 38
Merlin Rocket 39 Rs400 39
Rs Vareo 39 Merlin Rocket 39
Rs400 39 Rs Vareo 39
Flying Fifteen 40 Flying Fifteen 39
Scorpion 40 Scorpion 40
505 42 505 42
International Moth 43 Rs200 42
Rs200 44 International Moth 43
Phantom 44 Phantom 44
Enterprise 44 Enterprise 44
Rs800 44 Rs800 44
Snipe 46 Snipe 46
Albacore 46 Albacore 46
Hornet 46 Hornet 46
Laser Stratos 47 Laser Stratos 47
Finn 48 Finn 48
Lark 50 Miracle 50
29er 50 Lark 50
Rs Vision 50 Rs Vision 50
Cherub 51 Cherub 51
Sonar 51 Sonar 51
Laser 5000 53 29er 51
470 54 Laser 5000 53
Buzz 54 Buzz 54
420 54 Rs300 54
Rs300 54 59er 55
59er 55 K6 55
K6 55 Bosun 55
Bosun 55 B14 55
B14 55 420 56
Miracle 56 Mrx 57
Mrx 57 Topper 58
Topper 59 Rs600 59
Rs600 59 Supernova 60
Supernova 60 Pegasus 61
Pegasus 61 Yeoman 62
Blaze 62 Blaze 62
Boss 62 Boss 62
Iso 64 470 63
Rs700 64 Iso 64
Laser 4000 65 Rs700 64
Graduate 65 Laser 4000 65
Comet 65 Graduate 65
Yeoman 65 Comet 65
Flash 65 Flash 65
Topaz Duo 66 Topaz Duo 66
Vortex 68 Vortex 68
Osprey 69 Osprey 69
Laser 71 Laser 70
Contender 71 Tasar 71
Tasar 71 Crawley 71
Crawley 71 Musto Skiff 71
Musto Skiff 71 Laser Radial 77
Laser Radial 76 Classic 14 77
Classic 14 77 Norfolk Punt 77
Norfolk Punt 77 Spice 80
Spice 80 Contender 83
Laser 4.7 84 Laser 4.7 84
Laser 2000 85 Kestrel 87
Kestrel 87 Topper Xenon 87
Topper Xenon 87 Laser 2000 88
Laser 3000 87 18ft Skiff 89
Laser Ii 88 Topper Omega 90
18ft Skiff 89 Laser Ii 91
Topper Omega 90 Wayfarer 94
Wayfarer 94 Byte 94
Byte 94 Rs Feva 94
Rs Feva 94 Laser 3000 96
Laser Vago 98 Laser Vago 98

So, the top ten handicap bandits are the Thames Rater, the Topaz Magno, the 2.4M, the International Canoe, The National 12, the National 18, the Europe, the Firefly and the GP14 then? I really don't think so. Most of those classes haven't got anough results to be statistically significant, and the National 12s bring along a hot fleet. Of the so called "obviously unfair" handicaps none are in the top 10 and the Fireball comes in the top 20, and down at 16th if you exclude 2005. Nope, there really aren't any bandit handicaps: the system is really pretty good.

Oh and the Laser is well down the list... if you think that reflects an unfair handicap I suggest you watch the pack of Lasers covering each other to the back of the fleet one year. At my club, where we have three or four very talented Laser sailors, I've noted that if one of them gets a really good shift on the first beat and gets well clear in one of our major handicap races then he'll probably win or be very close on handicap, but if three or four of them are swapping places right round the track they'll be nowhere overall.

 

Here's the complete table. To summarise what I've done. I took the results for each race, and converted the actual finishing place into a percentage, so that if 200 boats finished both first and second scored 1%. I then averaged out the finishing places for each class. and that's the numbers in the Average Finishing Place columns. The Number of finishers column shows just that. The more finishers the more the results are likely to have some degree of statistical significance, so, as you can see, there's isn't really enough data on most classes to give much statistical validity. The Worst, Best, Average and Range columns give an idea of how the classes performed against the motional average of 50% finishing place. You can draw all sorts of conclusions from this, but for most classes the numbers aren't really enough to give much meaning. Its interesting, for instance, that the RS400 comes out as being one of the most consistently performing classes. I wouldn't have picked that one.

2007 Av 2006 Av 2005 Av 2004 Av 2003 Av 2002 Av 2007 Fin 2006 Fin 2005 Fin 2004 Fin 2003 Fin 2002 Fin Worst Best Mean Mean exc 2005 Range
Laser 65 50 79 77 67 77 15 8 5 23 11 15 79 50 71 70 29
Rs400 35 41 47 42 40 35 6 8 4 19 12 20 47 35 39 39 12
Rs200 46 39 65 38 63 32 12 9 4 14 7 11 65 32 44 42 33
Topper 78 63 85 73 53 41 12 2 1 5 14 14 85 41 59 58 44
Laser Radial 81 76 62 84 65 88 5 9 1 7 14 8 88 62 76 77 26
Gp14 4 65 44 17 28 24 1 3 1 9 10 11 65 4 27 26 61
29er 70 55 12 59 22 33 4 10 1 9 5 2 70 12 50 51 58
Fireball 63 41 21 26 11 44 1 6 5 3 4 4 63 11 31 34 52
2.4m 5 16 97 15 56 4 1 1 1 3 3 5 97 4 25 20 93
Yeoman 94 79 100 55 76 44 1 1 1 3 3 4 100 44 65 62 56
Laser 3000 96 91 29 98 94 98 1 1 1 2 2 1 98 29 87 96 69
Merlin Rocket 34 32 27 52 55 21 13 0 18 16 12 55 27 39 39 28
420 68 35 59 45 62 0 5 3 7 11 8 68 35 54 56 33
National 12 12 19 26 36 18 5 3 0 10 8 7 36 12 24 24 24
International 14 48 26 28 4 32 8 8 0 6 3 3 48 4 31 31 44
Enterprise 33 12 35 78 53 3 4 0 7 5 7 78 12 44 44 66
Rs800 65 51 41 30 48 4 4 0 9 6 2 65 30 44 44 35
49er 64 49 29 0 49 2 5 0 11 1 3 64 0 38 38 64
505 62 32 42 48 36 3 5 0 5 2 5 62 32 42 42 30
Laser 4000 77 62 75 57 54 4 1 0 5 2 8 77 54 65 65 23
Solo 10 21 27 59 27 5 3 0 1 4 7 59 10 28 28 49
Europe 30 33 17 24 37 5 1 0 3 4 5 37 17 29 29 20
Firefly 16 24 21 59 19 3 7 0 2 1 3 59 16 23 23 43
Rs700 91 50 55 71 84 1 4 0 5 2 3 91 50 64 64 41
Albacore 30 78 43 50 43 2 1 0 4 5 2 78 30 46 46 48
Iso 83 78 58 61 55 1 3 0 5 2 3 83 55 64 64 28
Laser 2000 97 50 81 91 92 1 0 1 5 3 4 97 50 85 88 47
Lark 19 62 60 57 66 3 1 0 2 6 1 66 19 50 50 47
Tasar 96 62 72 62 82 1 2 0 4 4 2 96 62 71 71 34
Rs600 63 59 53 43 63 3 1 0 2 1 4 63 43 59 59 20
Buzz 55 59 69 19 27 2 3 0 3 1 1 69 19 54 54 50
Hornet 58 24 41 50 2 0 0 1 8 11 58 24 46 46 34
K6 59 42 63 63 4 0 0 4 2 3 63 42 55 55 21
Laser Ii 65 96 92 89 0 0 1 2 1 4 96 65 88 91 31
B14 61 73 56 20 3 1 0 2 0 1 73 20 55 55 53
Rs300 11 75 23 61 0 1 0 3 1 2 75 11 54 54 64
Contender 87 85 9 73 1 3 1 0 0 1 87 9 71 83 78
Finn 18 59 48 51 1 2 0 1 0 2 59 18 48 48 41
Graduate 62 67 22 79 1 0 0 1 1 3 79 22 65 65 57
Scorpion 37 62 34 8 1 2 0 0 2 1 62 8 40 40 54
470 51 18 80 40 0 1 1 2 0 1 80 18 54 63 62
Miracle 92 82 12 3 0 2 1 1 1 0 92 3 56 50 89
Cherub 84 94 1 25 0 1 0 1 1 1 94 1 51 51 93
Flying Fifteen 41 34 15 68 0 0 1 1 1 1 68 15 40 39 53
Vortex 74 50 77 0 0 0 3 4 6 77 50 68 68 27
Comet 46 77 90 4 2 0 0 2 0 90 46 65 65 44
International Moth 64 14 17 0 0 0 4 1 2 64 14 43 43 50
Wayfarer 99 95 91 0 0 0 1 3 3 99 91 94 94 8
Laser 5000 67 62 29 0 0 0 2 2 2 67 29 53 53 38
Phantom 39 24 62 3 1 0 2 0 0 62 24 44 44 38
Bosun 95 31 25 0 2 0 2 1 0 95 25 55 55 70
Thames A Rater 7 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 7 1 3 3 6
National 18 23 19 53 1 1 0 0 1 0 53 19 32 32 34
Rs Feva 100 93 1 4 0 0 0 0 100 93 94 94 7
Blaze 59 63 0 1 0 3 0 0 63 59 62 62 4
Musto Skiff 71 71 0 0 0 0 1 3 71 71 71 71 0
Osprey 73 55 0 0 0 3 0 1 73 55 69 69 18
Topper Omega 91 89 2 2 0 0 0 0 91 89 90 90 2
Byte Cii 13 38 1 1 0 0 0 0 38 13 26 26 25
Kestrel 85 89 1 0 0 1 0 0 89 85 87 87 4
Laser 4.7 100 68 0 1 0 1 0 0 100 68 84 84 32
Pegasus 61 61 0 0 0 1 0 1 61 61 61 61 0
Spice 99 61 0 0 0 0 1 1 99 61 80 80 38
Topaz Duo 42 89 0 1 0 0 0 1 89 42 66 66 47
Supernova 60 0 0 0 0 0 3 60 60 60 60 0
59er 55 0 0 0 2 0 0 55 55 55 55 0
Byte 94 0 0 0 0 0 2 94 94 94 94 0
18ft Skiff 89 0 0 0 0 1 0 89 89 89 89 0
29er 37 0 1 0 0 0 0 37 37 37 37 0
Boss 62 0 0 0 0 0 1 62 62 62 62 0
Classic 14 77 0 0 0 0 1 0 77 77 77 77 0
Crawley 71 0 1 0 0 0 0 71 71 71 71 0
Flash 65 0 1 0 0 0 0 65 65 65 65 0
Heatwave 37 0 0 0 1 0 0 37 37 37 37 0
International Canoe 22 0 0 0 0 0 1 22 22 22 22 0
Laser Stratos 47 0 0 0 0 0 1 47 47 47 47 0
Laser Vago 98 0 1 0 0 0 0 98 98 98 98 0
Mrx 57 0 0 0 0 0 1 57 57 57 57 0
Norfolk Punt 77 0 0 0 0 0 1 77 77 77 77 0
Rocket 15 0 1 0 0 0 0 15 15 15 15 0
Rs Vareo 39 0 0 0 0 1 0 39 39 39 39 0
Rs Vision 50 0 1 0 0 0 0 50 50 50 50 0
Snipe 46 0 1 0 0 0 0 46 46 46 46 0
Sonar 51 0 0 0 0 0 1 51 51 51 51 0
Topaz Magno 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 0
Topper Xenon 87 0 1 0 0 0 0 87 87 87 87 0

Disclaimer

I've had a good go at compiling this and spent a reasonable amount of time on it, but it required manipulating a lot of data in various formats to bring it together, with origina typos, my typos, errors in the Word and Excel macros I used to assemble the data, all the rest of it. There's almost bound to be a mistake or two in there. I've also naughtily changed one artifact of the Stats - the year that there was 1 49er and it won, the percentage place to the nearest number worked out at 0% of finishers (there were more than 200 finishers). So I changed it to 1!

© Jim Champ, March 2007

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